Opening Statement



Thursday, 4 July 2013

Etobicoke Lakeshore By-Election Watch!

This blog continues @ Teachers By-election Watch!

Updates:


Vote for Milczyn! Please! Please!

Wynne has paid a surprise visit to Milcyzn's EL campaign office. I'm surprised its being considered a surprise. We are nearing the half way in the race. I saw the photo of her with the campaign workers and there weren't any familiar faces from years past. Go figure. It seems she was well received by the locals as she went out with the team to campaign at the local subway station despite the blistering Toronto heatwave, smog + humidity alerts @ Surprise!

The heats been turned up in the EL by-election race between the PC's and the OLP. Wynne braces for a possible loss while Hudak continues to give Holyday a helping hand on the hustings. Wynnes back from holidays as of today. It would seem she has a lot of running to do to catch up. More @ Heats on!


Holyday + Milcyzn: Who's Tory now? Take your pick ...

The Toronto Star's Martin Regg Cohn reviews last Thursday's all candidate debate. As he points out both Hollyday and Milczyn are on Toronto Mayor Rob Fords executive. Holyday has a populist appeal, Milcyzn is a technocrat, but both have high name recognition in EL compared to the NDP's Choo who runs a distant 3rd. Cohn responds to Holydays claims that he didn't read his 2004 motion very carefully. The motion called for a councillor to step down from office when they want to run in another election. Cohn begins to review the motion for him to very good effect. Ha. Holyday certainly asked for it @ Holyday's 2004 motion

You can find the text of Holydays 2004 motion Here!

The Thursday all candidate debate in EL: Holyday and Milcyzn slug it out! Rob Fords there fronting a Ford Nation reunion. John Tory is the moderator for this Tory Funfest. Here's a CP24 news summary @ video

The heated candidates debated hits a raw nerve and turns ugly. PC Holyday responds with rancour when he's questioned about his integrity in not stepping down from city hall to run in the provincial by-election. He has been a strong proponent of others doing so in the past. It's always interesting + insightful to see a Tory bare their teeth + betray their smiling demeanour in public. A flabbergasted Holyday goes for the bait by taking the offensive. He personally centres out audience member + Toronto Star writer Martin Regg Cohn for taking him to task on his apparent double standard in a recent column. I can't wait to see Cohn's next one. ;-) Read more @ Holyday snaps!

Worth reposting here: Toronto Stars Martin Regg Cohn criticizes Doug Holyday for his opportunism and double standards in running as the PC candidate in EL before his term at Toronto city hall is up. Holyday has been dead set against politicos doing so before but it seems it's different when it's himself, most notably former councillor + current NDP MP Olivia Chow. Cohn believes Holyday owes an apology to Olivia Chow. He doesn't buy Holydays argument it's okay because he is halfway through his term @ Regg Martin Cohn

The Sudbury Star speaks out in support of municipal politicos who run in by-elections without resigning first. It can be especially good in smaller cities and towns, in Northern Ontario. Sure Doug has "seen the light." Then again only when his golden rule was applied to himself. Read their point of view @ Sudbury Star

Holydays answer to the cities traffic woes? More parking spots! Milcyzn calls him very short sighted @ News Talk 1010


The Etobicoke Lakeshore All Candidates Debate!

Toronto Sun reports on the debate omitting Holydays nasty bits with a focus on his criticisms of Milcyzn @ Toronto Sun

Kevin Clark of the Peoples Political Party [?!] turns the debate into a 3 ring circus @ claims he's the man

Latest Forum Poll: Tories catching up in Etobicoke Lakeshore: OLP= 45% /PC= 39% /NDP= 11% .Loss of the Toronto riding to the PC's could be a political black eye for the Wynne OLP government + PC leader Tim Hudak knows it! Holyday is pulling out all the stops. Another Toronto Liberal bastion of support for the past 10 years is now also in play: Scarborough Guildwood! The Libs could be in for some close 2 way races! More @ EL Polls!

Are the OLP trying to buy votes in Toronto? Suddenly there might be money available for building subways! Is it a coincidence? See @ $ubway$ ?!?

The Story to date:

There's been a PC by-election candidate flip in Broten's former riding of Etobicoke Lakeshore [EL] in west Toronto. The candidate chosen last fall was popular local Toronto Police Detective Steve Ryan. Today PC Party leader Tim Hudak welcomed Toronto Deputy mayor Dough Holyday into the party fold. Holyday announced that he will now be the PC candidate in EL. Neither mentioned Ryan!


 Etobicoke Lakeshore Riding in Toronto

Holyday will be running against OLP hopeful and city councillor Peter Milcyzn. It's readily apparent the PC's are quite willing to toss out Ryan on a throw of the dice with Holyday to hopeful win the riding. It could give them their much coveted foothold in the GTA. It would be a definite black eye for the OLP. Still no word on who's running for the NDP. That should be announced Friday. It will be very interesting to see if they can pull a high profile candidate out of their hat!

Broten enjoyed a strong community base of support in her nearly 10 years as MPP for EL dating far back before her troubled days as MOE. In addition she benefited from having Tom Allison, now in the Premiers office, as her campaign manager for all three landslide wins. She also had a large army of teachers working for her with strong OECTA Provincial and local unit endorsements, as well as notable support from members of OSSTF and ETFO.

One would assume the OLP can kiss their teacher support goodbye in EL. Even should any affiliate want to organize something for Peter, it would be unlikely on such short notice during the summer holidays. It would also be unlikely the OLP will have much individual teacher member support in the riding after all the MOU bad vibes over the last year. Individual local members however, might be worried about who they'd want representing them at QP. Most wouldn't want a Tory. They could figure they wouldn't be supporting Broten by assisting Milczyn. Still I'm pretty sure the OLP can count this out as adding up to much teacher support, nothing like on the scale of years past. Possibly they might get some token donations from one or more of the affiliates to their war chest, if the NDP can't mount a serious challenge.

The PC's have held the riding for long stretches before Broten. Again the MPP's such as Morley Kells had strong grass root support and distinct community name recognition within the riding working to their advantage. There remain strong pockets of Tory support. How the large numbers of new condo + town home owners will vote remains a wild card which could prove decisive in determining who wins.


2011 Provincial Election Results

The NDP can also lay claim to a hold on the riding under popular and well respected former provincial NDP MPP Ruth Grier. The riding borders have since changed. Much of the NDP support is located among the housing projects and apartment complexes to the south section of the riding. They also enjoy a smaller gentrified party foot hold among some of the well established EL households + the nouveau rich home owners throughout the centre + to the north in the riding.

It's a crap shoot right now who could win. It could work in the PC's favour given Holydays high profile as a respected conservative Deputy Mayor who has managed to hold his own during the Rob Ford debacle. He was also once the Mayor of Etobicoke before the cities were amalgamated during the Harris years in the late 1990's. How many voters will remember or care is uncertain. Another variable could be the local reaction to the PC candidate switch. It will also be very interesting to see whom the NDP can come up with as a strong candidate.

By-elections can be the NDP's forte. We can expect the Ontario Federation of Labour  [OFL] to throw their weight behind the NDP campaign. A candidate with strong labour connections + credentials would be a dream pick for the OFL, but probably not a realistic choice especially under the circumstances unless they are well known in the community. It will be interesting to see what Andrea Horwath's NDP can do in EL. One would assume they aren't going to be asleep at the wheel but who really knows if they can't produce a strong viable candidate?

However, all factors considered, most important of all will be how many of their voters each candidate can get out in the dog days of summer come August 1st.  Don't be surprised if voter turnout plummets to an all time low. With the clock quickly ticking away, the race is on with no time to waste!


What can the NDP do?!? P.C. Choo has been chosen as the NDP EL candidate.

NEWS LINKS:

The Globe + Mail comments on the Holyday candidacy announcement @ A nasty race?

A Holyday EL PC win could be a bad loss for Toronto Mayor Rob Ford @ National Post

The Ford Nation is throwing it's force behind Holyday. Meanwhile at city hall Milcyzn raises questions about the legitimacy of Holydays self proclaimed election "leave of absence" @ On leave?

The Toronto Sun begins pounding the war drums for Doug Holyday. The "Holyday File" lists his local EL credentials as well as his right wing anti union/ pro privatization stand at Toronto city hall since 2010 @ Drumming up the right

Christine Blizzard toots the PC's Austerity Binge horn to lead the charge for a PC win against the Liberal odds @ More from the Toronto Sun

Ex EL PC candidate Steve Ryan denies he was given the old heave ho to make way for Holyday. He was suffering from an accident injury last year. Maybe he was a decoy just quietly holding an open seat? Well, whatever. Typically I should think he'd deserve having his costs reimbursed + a Tory plum somewhere down the road @ Accident Injury from before he was nominated


For NDP Etobicoke Lakeshore: Who? Choo!

My sincerest regrets: P.C. Choo has been chosen as the NDP candidate in Etobicoke Lakeshore! I was looking at an outdated EL News Site in my search. I could bemoan the NDP media but the mistake is ultimately all mine. Learn more about P.C. Choo @ P.C. Choo

P.C.Choo ran provincially for the NDP in Markham- Unionville in 2011. He was elected as a public school trustee in Etobicoke back in 1994. Some more info @ Past runs

He arrived to Canada in 1989 @ here!

P.C. Choo added a Facebook page on July 9th but it's pretty slim pickings @ Facebook

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath provides contact numbers for all 5 of the NDP's by-election candidates, and encourages you to make a donation to their campaigns. I've met the NDP candidates in the last 3 EL provincial races including 2003. Invariably they were bright, very likable people, with little or no connections or chances to win. The exception was Irene Atkinson is 2003. She was a serious candidate as a former trustee and city councillor. Too bad she had a bad accident this year. I should've thought she'd otherwise take a shot at it again. Donation info @ Donate

Monday July 8, 2013:

PC Party Leader Tim Hudak will be at the official opening of Doug Holyday's campaign office at approximately 3 pm this afternoon.On CP 24 News at Noon he spoke live with Simon LeDrew about Holyday's many PC attributes as a "tax saver". Hudak promoted the 5 by-elections as a referendum about the OLP government, Wynne is him [McGuinty], and so on, his regular stump speech as of late. He stressed the need to balance the budget, one year before the Liberals, with drastic, controversial cuts and so on, targeting the public service in specific as usual. He claimed the PC's could do this better than the OLP. LeDrew reminded him most voters probably don't care about the by-elections in the middle of summer. Hudak was adamant about how important it is to send the Liberals a PC message for change. BTW Premier Wynne is on holidays until next week when she will also be entering the fray.


PC Hudak + the notorious Ford Brothers lining up to support Holyday!

Tuesday July 9 2013

PC Party Leader Tim Hudak, in an amazing policy reversal, steps up to the podium with Rob + Doug Ford to campaign for a Doug Holyday win in the riding. It just shows how desperate he is to get a foothold back in Toronto. So far polls suggest the notorious Ford Brothers have tainted the credibility of the Conservative brand. Now he's even extended the invitation for Doug Ford to run again during the next provincial election. Holyday is lapping it all up. See the story @ Cracked?


Former EL OLP MPP + MOE Laurel Broten is sticking around to help Peter Milcyzn.

MORE TO COME .....

COMMENTS?

2 comments:

ETFO Steve said...

Rust never sleeps. Hopefully mou's, summer and a new school year on the horizon have not made us complacent. Worth a watch . . .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hTSR3lwoC8&feature=share

Anonymous said...

Giambrone to run for NDP in Scarborough.

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