Ontario's summer by-elections are heating up!
Check out the election summary and predictions on my July 31 blog!
Latest Forum results show many ridings are too close to call as the by-elections end and voters head to the polls @ Forum Poll Results
Here's a backgrounder [from July 17th], on the 5 by-elections across the province @ Interactive Guide
Here's some interesting updated by-election punditry from July 25 @ Punditry!
The Doug Little Report on the by-elections is essential reading for any and all progressives. For a studied + well written overview, read Doug @ The Little Report!
Here's the Globe + Mails Adam Radwanski's riding by riding analysis the day before the election. Bad news time for the OLP? See @ Punditry
Here's some Conservative blogging on the by-elections. Always know they enemy + learn how they think. The readers comments are especially insightful in analyzing the whole mindset @ Blue Like You?
In a similar vein, here's a very conservative column from the Windsor Star that takes a counterpoint position to most every progressive view point common here on my blog, explaining what's wrong with unions and the province. Read why the PC's should point blank win the by-elections @ Blue too!
PC cheerleader Lorrie Goldstein provides the crown touch: 20 lies the Liberals told you @ Blue Boy
Lots of readers at this blogsite are wary of the Neo Liberal Toronto Star. They provides lots of fluff pieces but what to think? Toronto Stars Robert Benzie provides a video on 5 things he thinks you should know about the August 1 by-elections @ Toronto Star
Is parachuting big name candidates into a riding a good idea? Seems sometimes yes, sometimes no. There have been very mixed reactions in the Ontario by-elections this time around @ Big Feet
Here's a CTV interview with NDP Party Leader Andrea Horwath @NDP
The PC + OLP Austerity Binge: birds of a feather?
The PC's have 8 t.v. ads against the Liberals broadcasting during the by-elections. See them @ PC ads
The OLP begins to roll out it's by-election television ads featuring Premier Kathleen Wynne. Will they help the Liberals regain some momentum? Or are they headed for a political beating? Here's the first @ OLP
Here's the latest OLP radio ads by Wynne in French + English @ Radio ads
The Toronto Sun's Sue-Ann Levy goes after the Wynne OLP for not showing any white males in their latest ad. Also it seems all the Liberals have been doing is creating union jobs. The model white guy on the party by-election block is Coran but the column suggests Ryan, Elliot and Hammond will be joining him next. The pretty convoluted pretzel logic of the piece means it includes a link to the latest ad in question so you can see how picky the OLP are in favouring women + non white males @ Not enough white guys?
Overheard on the internet: Kathleen Wynne will not be campaigning tomorrow, July 30, 2 days before the by-elections. Tell me this is not true [except for ridings where the NDP is in the lead]. The results could make or break Tim Hudak's political fortunes. He had two weeks to define the candidates and the issues, while she went on holidays. Now the OLP is facing a political beating and the leader takes off again? If true she must surely be getting some very bad campaign advice, or she isn't listening. Bad moves!!!
CBC estimates voter turn out on August 1st will be very low. No kidding. I'm still convinced that after all is said and done the winners will be those who get most of their identified support out to vote on the big day. Read @ Record lows?
Advance polls open for all 5 Ontario by-elections across the province today [Saturday]. Info @ Vote now!
Advance Polling ends today Friday July 26. Elections Ontario Polling info @ Vote!
ThreeHundredEight aggregate poll shows OLP + PC's in province wide dead heat with NDP picking up points. Crunch the numbers for yourself @ 308 [ed. link fixed!]
July 22 Forum shows the PC's taking a 5 point lead over the OLP [36-31%] with the NDP continuing to bring up the rear [27%]. The PC/OLP numbers continue to bounce back + forth, nothing new until it becomes a trend. This is two increases in a row for the NDP though. No new seat projects yet. See @ Forum Poll
July 26 Forum Poll shows the PCs leading in Etobicoke Lakeshore + Ottawa South. OLP is holding onto Scarborough Guildwood. Windsor Tecumseh and London West remain wild cards. Hmmm. I've heard Windsor Tecumseh is safe with the NDP, Ottawa probably with the OLP, and London West is the wild card. We will find out for sure on August 1st. Report is @ Forum Riding Polls
Three Hundred Eight claims these polling numbers are meaningless in a summer election. It all depends who gets out their vote. A comparison between the latest polls in May and now could be more significant as they show a definite NDP gain of 7 points. Click and scroll down to Ontario @ 308
July 27 Toronto Star article handicaps the candidates issues and odds @ Changes coming?
MIA: Where's Wynne? Ummm ... who called the summer by-elections?
Premier Wynne was off the campaign trail on vacation for the first 2 weeks. Came back for a week or so. Now she's with the rest of the Premiers for a Council of the Federation meet. Lots of big talk but focus? Media coverage? I'd say Tim and Andrea are getting a lot more done at the grass roots level. We will see if Kathleen's "plan" [?!] works to the OLP advantage come August 1st. I'm skeptical. The only safe bet for now would seem to be the NDP in Windsor. All the other ridings continue to look like a crap shoot.
Wynne responding to latest polls claims she remains optimistic. Dunno. She doesn't look too pleased, and is making excuses that it doesn't matter all ready @ Headed for a fall
Here's something different: Twitters "Media Mister". Polling is done by recording which candidates and riding get the most references in the social media. Hey, the big pollsters have become notorious for not calling the results correctly over the past few elections in Canada and the US. What's to be lost by checking this out too, even if it just turns out to be for fun? PC Holyday has a commanding lead in EL. So does OLP Coran in London West. NDP Gambrione in Scarborough. NDP Hatfield has a 5 point lead in Windsor. PC Matt Young is leading by about 3 points in Ottawa South. The basic idea is that these are the names people recognize and are discussing. Wouldn't that group be more likely to actually go out and vote on August 1 opposed to those in a random sampled telephone poll? Some food for thought @ Twitter Election Predictions
THE RIDING RACES: NDP, OLP+ PC
My separate blogs on Etobicoke Lakeshore + London West are below. Scroll down for now. Links will be provided.
OTTAWA SOUTH [OS]
Wynne hits the Ottawa South hustings to bolster the party fortunes @ Ottawa South
Ottawa South all candidates debate turns into a major snooze fest as everyone sticks to their talking points avoiding questions + debate. Now there's one way to engage the public during a summer by-election! Not! Maybe some parties prefer it that way? More @ Zzzzzzzzzz!
All candidates meet with the Ottawa Citizen Editorial Board reminds me of a "Why I should be class president?" debate. The gas plant scandal continues to dog the OLP candidate who claims all three parties should be sharing the blame. Both the NDP + PC's promised to nix the plants during the 2011 election, the difference being the OLP went ahead and did it. I recall campaigning in Etobicoke Lakeshore at the time. Everybody but everybody was royally p.o'ed + the Liberals were taking the blame for not shutting the plant down. The PC's sure are getting a lot of political mileage off the issue now. Such is political life. A video and article @ Ottawa Citizen
Both Horwath + Hudak visit the riding for a third time each to beat the bushes for votes seemingly refocusing the race for their candidates moreso on local issues @ Heating up
The Toronto Sun targets Fort McGuinty! Isn't there an Ottawa Sun? I'd bet that's the Sun News target audience. This story could be wishful thinking on the Sun's part. A lot of the pundits are still calling the riding a Liberal win. But apparently everyone everywhere is madly in agreement with all Hudak's accusations. He's so bloody two faced! Anyway, see @ OLP going down?
Warren Kinsella tweets that the Harper Cons are campaigning for the PC candidate on the taxpayers dime @ Con Hijinks?
Wynne visits the riding on the last Sunday before the by-election + shows a brave face @ Brave face
Horwath visits riding for last time before the by-election. Hudak will return for another visit. OLP candidate in a leg brace. PC candidate has a new hop to his step with a forecast 14 point lead. He's telling voters FDK will be frozen by a PC government where it's already available. Others can get it later after the budget is balanced. McGuinty family is everywhere campaigning out on the streets. However it sounds to me like it's game over for the OLP + NDP in OS though of course neither will admit it. Both parties have a better chance in other ridings with time quickly running out @ Last Weekend Round Up
Dalton McGuinty joins the Ottawa South election campaign during the last few days. Under McGuinty the OLP held the riding for 23 years. He casts a long shadow, but is it good or bad? None of the OLP candidates in the other ridings want him to visit. Fear runs deep Ottawa South might be about to go PC. Read @ Dalton's last stand?
The Ottawa Citizen has endorsed PC candidate Young. I've read the editorial and I'm not quite sure why. Their assessment of the NDP and a supposedly new, improved Tim Hudak seem a stretch. See @ PC Endorsement
LONDON WEST [LW]
CUPE throws it's support behind the NDP's Peggy Sattler in London West @ London Sattler
Here's a who's who of supporters campaigning for the NDP's Peggy Sattler in London South. It includes members from various ETFO + OSSTF local + more @ London West
Robocall poll misidentifies NDP's Peggy Sattler as the Green Party candidate! Elections Ontario is asked to investigate whether this was intentional. I'm surprised folks reply to these calls. Soon as I know it's a robo anything I hang up. See @ Robocalls
See the debate in London West. OLP's Ken Coran goes into attack mode @ London West
CUPE has endorsed the NDP. Coran claims union support doesn't matter. NDP's Sattler speculates union workers are assisting all 3 candidates [?] @ Unions?
Backtracking: I might've posted this link before but it perhaps deserves a revisit for the bit at the end. Ever considered that the OLP might just be positioning Coran for the 2014 provincial election? Sure, teachers aren't impressed but what about John + Mary Q. Public? See @ Future Plans?
Horwath + Hudak visit the riding again the day before the election. Horwath restates claim the OLP + PC's are both sides of the same coin. Wynne is MIA. I see her on the news today speaking on provincial + municipal Toronto matters. For the Liberals this riding is a sinking ship, their campaign troops could better be used elsewhere. Say good bye Ken! See my latest by-election blog, but first read this @ Riding visits
WINDSOR TECHUMSEH [WT]
NDP Hatfield on the victory march in WT?
Percy Hatfield is on an NDP roll in Windsor - Techumseh, heat wave or not. Tip: He's got extra sun block if you see him out there hitting the pavement @ NDP lead
How the PC's are loosing the Windsor Tecumseh by-election is interesting @ Libs too
NDP Hatfield goes on the offensive over manufacturing jobs in Windsor. Watch the candidates debate @ Windsor Tecumseh
The Windsor Star interviews each of the party candidates. See the videos @ Windsor Tec
Is Hudak overstating his economic case by using the Detroit bogey man to frighten voters into the PC camp? Read @ Detroit?!
OECTA Provincial President James Ryan tweets that members are out campaigning for the NDP's Percy Hatfield today [July 29]. Officially OECTA Provincial, like the other teacher affiliates has not endorsed any by-elections candidates. Local units are encouraged to provide their members with relevant info on the local candidates. The members can help out on their own as they usually would at their own discretion. The by-elections will not result in a new government. The next provincial election will do that. Perhaps it's wise that all the teacher affiliates hold back any all out involvement, support or endorsements, just to remind the politicos that we are not be taken for granted. I should think the message would be especially poignant in former MOE Laurel Broten's Etobicoke Lakeshore race. You can read into what you will about today's announcement on what's happening in Windsor Techumseh.
The Windsor Star sees the by-election as a Liberal referendum. Todays editorial claims the NDP helps the OLP so that's why they are endorsing the PC candidate. No matter, the NDP would seem to have this riding anyway. Read the papers rationale @ PC endorsement
Are the Scarborough - Guildwood NDP facing open revolt over the Gambrione endorsement? I wish Cohn would let go of the City Hall Couch Sex Scandal. Spicy yes! But Fords allegedly done worse since + got a blank pass @ Gambrione + the NDP
Oh no! The Toronto Star has a political hard on for the NDP's Adam Gambione's "checkered past" on a certain city hall couch late at night? C'mon give us a break! Folks are still concerned about his pre marital fling in a city where the mayor, who has a checkered past including allegations of attending crack land gang parties, pinching a female councillors butt, and wife beating enjoys a 47% approval rating?!? Read all about it @ Lots of shame to go around
Adam Gambione is back!
Scarborough-Guildwood all candidates debate proves disappointing. OLP + PC candidates read stock talking point answers off sheets of paper. NDP Gambione remains as quiet as he can. Indie candidates shine @ debate no debate
Adam Gambione: is the public pumped up enough for a good redemption story + allow him a political come back? I wouldn't be unprecedented. Read @ Come back time?
Gambione isn't playing the "please forgive me" game. Good for him. If it comes down to name recognition he could still win the race. Even if he loses though he's credibly positioning himself back in the public eye for the next election he decides to run in. He's young, a top talent and focused on what counts. It's good to see him throw his hat back in the ring with the NDP. More @ Give him a thumbs up!
There's nothing the PC's like better than a good scandal! Unless they are in power + are getting caught all the time. OLP candidate Mitzie Hunter would seem to have been caught falsely claiming John Tory has endorsed her. See @ Hunter hunted
Spacing Toronto has an interesting article on how Gambrione and the NDP have missed the bus in Toronto over the transit issue. To be fair, it's become a political football. Makes little sense anymore. Not since Glen Murray and Rob Ford made such a mess of it. Remember Transit City? It included years of consultation and brainwork, then was killed off for this political nonsense today. Anyway John Lorinc figures Horwath + Gambrione fumbled the transit ball. His campaign will come to naught. He will head back downtown to try his hand again at municipal politics @ NDP fumbles the ball
Seems the OLP's Mitzie Hunter is now a reborn Scarborough Subway advocate, to good effect in the riding. Umm ... how many subway stops? How much money? Whatever happened to the approved Transit City plan?!? Oh yes, Rob Ford came along to bally-ho the subway idea after it had already been exhaustively studied, with proper consultation, and rejected for a mixed transit idea that would've gotten Toronto riders across the city more transit bangs for our bucks. Duh. John Tory qualifies his endorsement but expresses no rancour to Mitzie @ Subways etc.
ETOBICOKE LAKESHORE [EL]
Tim + Doug: Happy daze in EL since OLP shot themselves in the union foot?
Wynne and Broten help rally the Liberal troops for a Milcyzn campaign blitz in Etobicoke. Stay tuned as the OLP + PC pull out all the stops for a by-election fight to the death in the riding. I've heard rumours NDP help is being sent up to help out from Windsor Tecumseh where Hatfield holds a commanding lead. Milcyzn campaign news is @ Etobicoke Lakeshore.
Carpenter Union to the rescue! They are now helping campaign for Milcyzn. God knows, the teachers won't be flocking to the riding to help out. The OLP is definitely trying to hobble together a new campaign support crew in the riding to compensate for the one they lost with the MOU/Bill 115. Hmmm. More @ Carpenters build OLP support
Power Plant Politics: Hudak's grand announcement about the EL plant shows Tim Hudak is full of BS. A trip back to the province wide blackout in summer 2012 when the last Tory government was in power. PC mismanagement of the provinces hydro needs resulted in the crisis today. Important to keep this in perspective @ PC BS
NDP's P.C. Choo urges voters not to engage in strategic voting @ Choose Choo?
The Ford Bros. Sunday talk radio show continues to toot the PC horn for Etobicoke Lakeshore candidate Doug Holyday. Per Milcyzn? Good lad, wrong party. Are we to then surmise they would otherwise be interchangeable? Both are on Mayor Rob Ford's city hall executive committee. More @ Ford Yap Fest
Here's Doug Holydays PC tax cutter platform that never fails to make Ford nation go ga ga @ PC Rhetoric
It was 18 years ago this week that the Hudak - Harris PC's chopped the Eglinton Avenue subway line because the province was apparently broke. Now Hudaks PC's are all for building more Toronto subway lines despite the latest greatest provincial debt?!? Let's do the math ..... Nope! It doesn't add up! See the front page of the July 22 1995 Toronto Star @ Subway expansion?
PC Holyday defends the Mike Harris record by claiming the PC's cancelled the Eglinton subway line in 1995 because they couldn't afford it, but now the province can.
You can't have it both ways Doug. Duh. More @ Harris PCs
Holyday takes the heat for using his position as Deputy Mayor to sequester a City of Toronto garbage truck from a private contractor as a prop in a campaign appearance by party leader Hudak. Holyday is proud the city privatized garbage pick up. Seems he likes to flaunt it on the public dime despite all talk of saving taxpayer dollars notwithstanding @ Trash talk
Milcyzn files a complaint about Holyday's actions to the cities Integrity Commission. Sad but true, Rob Ford was found guilty by them but the commission has no teeth. Plus nobody seems to care about possible breeches anymore, unless it concerns Gambrione's city hall couch escapades. Sigh. Alas @ Integrity?
A "heated" all candidates debate focuses on the Etobicoke gas plant issue @ gas pains
Think like a PC: Holyday is Hudak's great white hope for a Toronto breakthrough seat. He comes complete with a very dedicated army of Ford Nation campaigners. A good victory could save his leadership butt this fall @ A Tim Win?
Holyday poses for a campaign picture in a Delorean. Check out the Sun reader responses. You can submit one too! Ironic: PC's were outraged when they found out Broten's husband had two sports cars. But now? See @ Marty McFly?
The Ontario Provincial Green Party leader speaks out about the Alberta Oil Sands Project in Alberta during a visit to Ottawa South in support of the local candidate there. Hmmm. Didn't anybody ever tell him that ..... oh, forget it. Folks get confused enough as is about the different levels of government. It's sad that he seems to be too. It's true there is a push to run some pipelines east but how is a party that hasn't won a seat yet going to meet with the Fed + other provinces to stop it from happening? Even under the very unlikely scenario that they are going to win a seat this time around? Wouldn't it be better to start with important local issues at home that are more doable? Are they even knowledgeable about these? One seriously has to question what this party is really all about + is trying to do. I know some teachers support the Green Party because it advocates for one school system in Ontario, and the environment is of course a motherhood issue. However unlike most Green Parties elsewhere in the world this is not a progressive party. It is somewhere to the ultra far right of Tim Hudak. Check out their platform sometime! The site is @ Green Party
The Green Party's "One Ontario, One School System" platform is explained @ One School System
The Family Coalition Party has entered a candidate in the Windsor Tecumseh race. Lee Watson's great aunt Ellen Fairclough was the first federal female cabinet minister. The party supports a publicly funded Catholic school system in Ontario. Her priority is changes to the federal job program + a demand for more Federal infrastructure $$$, a position also supported by Premier Wynne who will be meeting with the other provinces this week. Somehow I can't see the party sharing interest in joining up with the OLP on much if anything. The party is ultra socially conservative. No word on Lee's position on the Windsor manufacturing crisis yet but abortions + gay marriage are big no nos @ Family Coalition
Meet the Family Coalition Party candidate @ Lee Watson
Vote August 1st come rain or shine!