Opening Statement



Thursday, 1 August 2013

Ontario By-election Day: The Results!



Ha ha Tim: By-election results?!? Grrrr! Grrrr! Grrrr!

Full Election Ontario polling results @ HERE!  And the winners are:

NDP in Windsor-Tecumseh and London-West!

OLP in Scarborough-Guildwood and Ottawa-South!

PC in Etobicoke-Lakeshore!

Synopsis?

PC's do not live up to expectations but have won Toronto foothold with Ford support! OLP saves face by not being beaten black and blue! 2 out of 5 win has plausible denial potential verses 0 or 1. NDP reaps 2 seats out performing general expectations + consolidating spring gains from solid legislative performance.

Party Leader Winners

1] NDP's Andrea Horwath
2] OLP's Kathleen Wynne
3] PC's Tim Hudak

Best news for Andrea! Worst for Tim!


The Toronto Sun's Christina Blizzard reports Hudak now faces a leadership challenge at the fall PC convention! We might, as progressives, think that's great, it looks good on him for being such a nasty so and so. However I was talking with James on the phone as the results were coming in. He made a good point. If the PC's got rid of him and came up with somebody more popular and likable, would that necessarily be good for us? It could be a big breakthrough for the PC's come next election. He'd still have the same group of baddies in his cabinet. Hmmm. The articles is @ Bad News 4 Tim!


Congratulations NDP!

Timeline


9:00 pm

Word is Horwath is in Windsor-Tecumseh [WT], not much of a surprise, but if correct does this mean London-West [LW] NDP candidate Sattler is going down?

McGuinty is heading to OLP celebrations at Kelsey's Ottawa-South [OS]. Security detail is in place at the restaurant/ bar.

Early, very, early polls show PC's leading in Etobicoke-Lakeshore [EL], OS and WT. Very unreliable indicator at this point.

9:30 pm

Early NDP lead in WT + LW.

Rob Ford arrives at Holydays PC party in EL

Early NDP Hatfield slam dunk victory reports coming in from WT. NDP lead still holding in London West [LW].

2 news networks calling WT for the NDP! NDP consolidating lead in LW with OLP in 3rd place.

Are we seeing a large OLP protest vote with switch to NDP?

Early OLP lead in Ottawa South [OS] and Scarborough-Guildwood [SG] is holding so far.

PC's hold 3 point lead over OLP in EL. Will low NDP vote here help OLP?

10:15

OLP consolidating lead in SG with NDP's Giambrone strongly bringing up the rear. OLP maintaining lead in slow vote count in OS.

OLP projected win in SG with Wynne reportedly on her way to candidate Mitzi Hunters party central. Victory speech expected at 10:40.

NDP maintaining strong lead in LW. OLP Corans still a poor 3rd.

Cheesy classic rock party at PC Holydays party central in EL with Ford reportedly going to speak with press before the night is over. PC's maintain a narrow lead.

Horwath giving speech at Hatfield celebration in WT! LW victory within reach!

Horwath laying NDP claim to victory in LW in speech!

Hatfield takes microphone for speech accompanied by BTO "Taking Care of Business" soundtrack. Very Canuck.

10:30

Sattler NDP victory speech in LW.

NDP Gambrione concession speech in SG. Very respectful showing should show he's back. Now he should head back down downtown since his name has been redeemed.

Wynne introduces OLP candidate Hunter as winner in SG.

11:00


Kathleen: Ummmm ... heh ....heh .... heh! Er ...... er .............. er?

Wynne OLP victory speech in SG. OLP projected win in SG and OS! 2 wins! Wynne looks relatively chipper, not the beating many expected!

PC Holyday declared winner in EL!

11:15

OLP declared winner in OS, Fraser makes victory speech.

Hudak victory speech in EL. Sounds to me like he's reading the victory speech for if he'd won a few more seats. It's a forced smile + he's not chipper or beaming either. Nope. Tim is not a happy man, though EL is a coup. He made a break through into the Toronto.

The price he'll pay for EL: Rob Ford speaks. Says the victory was all Hudaks. Parrots his neo con tax cutter references. Not beaming either though. It was close. The mighty Ford Nation was not quite so powerful as one might have expected despite all his earlier bluster. Wonder how the rest of the province is going to take to Tim's new Toronto friends? Now if he can ditch Rob and Doug, he's got Doug .....

12:30 am

Regret I posted the last part rather late here; computer problems and talking election talk on the phone ...... summary on top of blog.


IMPORTANT INFO [FROM EARLIER TODAY ....... ]

Stay tuned here for the results! I will post them when they become available. The polls close at 9 pm. Results are expected between 10-10:30 pm. There are quite a few resources all ready here on my blogsite that should prove useful and interesting if you are a hard core teacher union politico like me and plan to watch the results as they come in. To help you make sense of the by-election results, I have so far I have posted:

By-election Day: A Political Theory of the Mind @ Analysis + Result Predictions

Complete Ontario Teacher By-election Coverage @ All 5 By-elections

Odds + Sods: July Teacher Digest 2 " Political Party" section @ Odds + Sods

Etobicoke Lakeshore By-election Coverage @ Etobicoke Lakeshore

London West By-election Coverage @ London West

Sun News Network + CP24 will begin news coverage at 8pm tonight.


Good boy! Keep shooting off your mouth Doug! Help Tim!!! ;-)

Global News interactive page let's you select ridings for information and shows past voting results @ Global Interactive

Global QP Bureau News Chief Alan Carter provides live blog coverage tonight @ Live blog 1

The Toronto Star provides an online page showing the riding maps, issues, party candidates + polls. I'm not sure where these "latest" polling numbers came from though. They look different @ Online resource

Where were the party leaders today? Horwath was visiting all the ridings. Wynne was in Toronto with a side trip to ... surprise! Surprise! London West! No word on Tim. As I mentioned before, it will be interesting to see where they all head when the polls close!
All three will want to make a victory speech at a winning riding. All deals are off though, and everything is in the air in this mad horse race tonight!

Here's where you can find your polling station in each of the 5 by-election ridings today! Better get going! The clock is ticking! Every vote counts @ Polling Location Finder


Stick around Adam! You were missed!

Party Leader Andreas Horwath's NDP site provides info on the 5 NDP candidates running today @ NDP Candidates

COMMENTS?

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great coverage David. Thanks for everything you do. Get ready for the coming Fall season because things are getting shaky in Toronto. Fortress Toronto has been breached. Man the ramparts! Tories are in the compound. Prediction. Hudak is a goner. PCs will put a more reasonable and presentable leader in charge. Maybe Frank Klees? He does old man WASP outrage like the best of them. Wynne is in major trouble. Behind the smile lies a troubled leader of an increasingly weakened party. Her caucus will start to doubt her if they haven't already. Gone are the blissful ruthless McGunity majority days.....Look for the opposition to drag well connected Liberals to the committee to keep the Liberals in the scandal for as long as they can. If you think the Liberals were withholding emails just think of how the opposition is drawing out this process to maximize the benefits...The NDP are starting to look for real. More established candidates will come to them. As Toronto Liberals read the tea leaves and retire the general election will see Etobicoke go to Ford Nation and parts of Scarborough to the NDP. The Liberals are under attack. Big time. The game is afoot. What are teacher's unions to do? OSSTF and OECTA both have dippers for president's. Is it time for a shift or does the Liberal mentality still trump reason? CUPE played it smartest. The teacher's unions are in danger of finding themselves increasingly on the outside. Stay tuned but until then....Enjoy the summer. You earned it!

David Chiarelli said...

Ha ha! Love it! Thanks! Hey! .... Want to write a guest blog??? ;-) I will keep it going! Indeed the next school year looks real exciting now! Even hopeful! For August though I am going to be in and out of here a lot as I hit the road for summer! Hooray! It feels like it's finally here!

Anonymous said...

I was hoping that the Liberals would have been sent a stronger message by losing all seats. I guess ORNGE, E-Health, Gas Plants, lies about taxes, etc are okay with the people of Ottawa and Scarborough. I believe the real message was sent to Hudak. That message rings loud and clear, we don't need you to make us into Michigan north. That leaves the NDP as the next possibility to lead the province. That task is huge. There's no money. As teachers we cannot expect any salary increase. I do believe that all union groups have to stick together to ensure that we keep what we have. Watch the grid, pensions, benefits, 85 factor. These are all things that will be on the chopping block next year. If we passively allow things to happen as we did with Bill 115 the teaching profession will be further attacked. Can we trust our union leaders? Heck, can we trust that our union membership will stop being sheep and following blindly whatever they are told to do?

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