Opening Statement



Tuesday, 13 May 2014

Are We Headed Towards A Tory Majority?



As the latest threehundredeight.com [308] aggregate poll [see HERE! ] above suggests, we could be headed towards the thinkable: a Tory majority government under Ontario Provincial Conservative Leader Tim Hudak! Hudak  seems to have managed to broken past his 38% ceiling of solid conservative party support to make inroads into the soft vote he needs for a majority, with the June 12 Ontario election a little under a month away!

I trust the 308 aggregate poll most and continue to use it here on my blogsite. It is a sum of all the different polls being conducted. It seems the most reliable as it is less given to wild swings. It would be remiss not to highlight the latest numbers. If you check the 308 aggregate in my May Teacher + News + Views blog [see HERE! ] you will note that at the beginning of May the PC's and the Ontario Liberal Party [OLP] were in a 34.2% dead heat!

That changed most notably when the May 6-9 IPSO poll results were added in. It's very disturbing. The PC's continue to show a steady lead in the IPSO numbers As far as IPSO is concerned, this is not a blip or irregularity in the polling trends from over the last year or so, far from it. Especially shocking are the percentage of voters most likely to vote: 51% PC, 24% OLP  and 23% NDP. If the numbers hold steady the PC's could have a massive advantage on election day, the only poll that really counts! Further red lights go off when we see the choice of party leaders: Hudak has the lead at 34% to the NDP's Andrea Horwath at 29%, and the OLP's Kathleen Wynne at 28%. Ouch! You can examine the IPSO numbers in greater detail below [PC=blue, OLP=red, NDP=orange]:



As a caveat, it is worth noting that other recent polls included in the 3018 aggregate do show some irregularities. According to the recent Oracle and Innovative Research polls, the PC's have either an even greater 11% lead over the OLP or there's actually a 6% OLP lead over the PC's! Each pollster is often accused of a party bias, so the aggregate could still definitely change as more are released. However with the PC's seemingly breaking out far ahead of the pack further polling results will be very interesting to see! 


SOME CONSIDERATIONS:

It is particularly disturbing that the PC's seem to be making inroads with the soft voters who might otherwise vote Liberal or NDP. Is Hudak's moronic "Million New Jobs" rhetoric resonating with a fed up electorate who's decided it's time to "throw the bums out", no matter the cost? Remember how Rob Ford's over simplistic "Gravy Train" slogan caught on a few years back? Is it game over for Premier Wynne regardless of whatever she says or does over the next four weeks with all the OLP baggage she is carrying along?

The NDP numbers are either low, lower or lowest. Despite her efforts party leader Andrea Horwath does not seem to have gained any traction from her admirable efforts to turn around the party's fortunes since the 2013 budget. Is the NDP likewise dead in the water before the election has even begun in earnest?

The month between now and June 12 is without doubt a couple of lifetimes in politics. Anything can still happen. However, a massive Tory lead is not the kind of momentum that either the OLP or NDP will like to see continue for very long. Perhaps in their favour is the possibility that an early lead in the polls is not necessarily a good thing in the long run. A party might only have one way to go, down, as the media and voters begin to more critically analysis the political platform of the apparent government in waiting and find it wanting. Will frightened voters begin to flock towards the OLP to strategically block the threat of a PC win, dealing a devastating blow to the number of NDP seats in the next legislature? Or does Ms Horwath actually have some secret weapon up her sleeve that prompted her to damn the torpedoes when she pulled the plug on the Liberal government? If so she better use it pretty quick!

We certainly live in interesting times!

A Recommendation: You could help your party a lot by just volunteering to get out their voters on election day. Drivers are needed, phone calls will need to be made and so on. Perhaps you might do it after school. Also check in advance if your union has any release time available for election helpers on June 12 so that you can help all day. We have good much needed organization and people skills. If a lot of teachers volunteer to help the party they support on election day in ridings where a win could be close it could be decisive!

PS: Scroll down: Much more commentary + Ontario election coverage below....

Your Comments:

30 comments:

Ontario Teacher said...

I'm just waiting for Hudak to screw up by showing his true tea-bagging colours. Keep boasting his crazy public job cuts, right-to-work, and perhaps even spill some homophobic comment that will surely backfire on him.

Anonymous said...

No, we will not have a majority government. Perhaps a minority PC government worst case scenario.

Anonymous said...

Why are the election results from the Halton Elementary Unit Elections yesterday not released yet? Why so secretive?

David Chiarelli said...

Lets hope the polling trends dont continue. Otherwise realize that for teachers all deals are of and everything is on the cutting table: jobs, contracts, pensions, support staff, class size......

David Chiarelli said...

Halton Elementary reminds me alot of the Crimea ...

Anonymous said...

An ETFO member, Jennifer French, is running for the NDP in Oshawa against the conservative incumbent...this has been close a close contest in the past. It would be nice if the federations could work on this one together and send a message!

Anonymous said...

Can it get any worse than what the Liberals did to teachers under Bill 115? Mike Harris never approached the level of cuts/ austerity we suffered in 2012-13. Let's give Timmy a chance to cut the fat from the public service. I see too much waste in the large number of education workers who don't earn their keep- see librarians checking out books, resource teachers wandering aimlessly down hallways, coordinators doing very little, two education workers in the silly daycare/ play time called full day kindergarten and incompetent teachers allowed to continue. Our unions let us down big time in 2012. Let's see what they do when Timmy pushes his "right to work " agenda. They will try to lead us down the strike path again. This cowboy is retiring next year. I am going to sit back and chuckle when our young teachers have their salaries, benifits and pensions further eroded. Last year was our time to fight. 91 % at ETFO said- I don't want a fight. We took a kicking. Bring on your big boots Timmy. It won't take much to squash us teachers; we're all sheep.

Anonymous said...

PC majority unfortunately. Up 2 more points as of today. Start the cuts at the Ministry of Ed and move down. The union leadership has lost the confidence of it's members. I'm beginning to believe that they really don't care about the members. How many 100 thousand dollar + salaries at the Provincial office?

Anonymous said...

Apathy is interesting...many people criticize the unit executives out there working for zero pay and expect their unit negotiating committees to work miracles. Ask them to do work action like work to rule or protest, or strike, and they can't be bothered sacrificing anything for long term gain. The future will be defined by contracts based on that apathy. Or will it? Wake Up! Get Up! Stand Up For Your Rights! Thanks Bob Marley. Stop blaming others for individual apathy.

Anonymous said...

David you should do a mini blog inviting OECTA members to comment on what they see as being the ideal union to serve their needs best. Title it something like Your OECTA 2014- what should it look like? What should it do?

Anonymous said...

Unfortunately, Timmy won't cut the fat. He'll cut the teacher benifits, salary, pension. Our young teachers will not fight anything. The deer in the headlight looks from these neophytes (I'm just happy to have a job) means the profession will be degraded further. Oh, how our forefathers must be looking on with sadness as we give away all that was negotiated over the past 30 years. Newbies, wake up, take a stand. It's okay to say no to administrators.

David Chiarelli said...

Apathy might well result in todays teachers losing wages, benefits and our excellent pension plan. They won't even know what they missed. unfortunately many feel disenfranchised from their union. Think the board & Government provided all this out of the goodness of their hearts.

Anonymous said...

Here is Sam Hammond's ETFO video that denounces the Tories. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CANWAwyzyE&feature=youtu.be

It ain't going to be better with the Libs. In fact I think Timmy should cut much of the fat in education. Librarians, resource teachers, two education workers in Kindergarten. The debt has to be looked at someway

Anonymous said...

I have 6 years to go. Attended the rallies and picketed the MPP's office. Unfortunately only a handful of the newbies bothered. I'm done. It's their turn to fight. And by the way, there is one group and one group only to blame for the position we are in: OECTA!!

David Chiarelli said...

Should Hudak win his majority watch most anyone who can retire. It was like that in 1995. How can you stay on to watch a lifetime of work destroyed by abunch of clowns?

Anonymous said...

The lessons of the 1990's have been forgotten. We did not stand up to the social contract - yes the unions sold out their members 20 years ago on that one too. Then we all started accepting strips from our school boards and we did not react and then finally when we did stand up to Harris in the protest we ended up backing down!

We should have learned from that decade of decimation that your best chance to defend ourselves is on the first day we are attacked and that accepting less just means the government or the school boards will happily come back for more. Not fighting with every resource we had against Bill 115 has doomed us to another decade of decimation. It will only end when we match the attacks on us with equal force...and then we will spend another decade fighting to get back to where we started from. If Hudak is elected the schools in this province need to be shut down no later than October 1st.

Anonymous said...

When teacher salaries are cut in half these zombies will start to pay attention to their union and their contracts! Let's see them paying hefty mortgages for a roof over their heads on half pay. Ha!ha! I imagine they will be able to make the association between union performance and contracts then!

Anonymous said...

Halton Elementary Results Nina March took more than 64% of the vote for president with 836 members voting.

Also elected

Tara Hambley
Vince E
Anne M
Krista H
MaryAnne M
LeeAnn B
Patrick D
Roberta M
Alicia N
Anne Marie O

Anonymous said...

Now that there is an agreement/settlement between Richard Brock and OECTA what gives? The agreement is NON-Disclosure on both sides so what does that mean to members? Just one more secret from the great MOU. Transparency? Accountability? The TRUTH? TRUST? Hey LUCY- Time for some explaining!

David Chiarelli said...

Regarding proposal for a Your OECTA blog: sure thats an interesting idea. Of course it might be best to have an active member host it as a guest blog. I am wide open to this. Usual open forum free speech discussion. Keep constructive.


Remember: we might not very well like what are unions have done over past year or so. However that does not mean we dont need a union. Far from it, especially with upcoming contract, and if Hudak wins watch out.

I'm thinking of updating my Why We Need Unions blog in near future to take into account new reality a la 2014+

Your OECTA could make excellent companion piece to develop theme in meaningful, engaging manner.

If anyone interested in hosting guest blog please let me know @ davechiarelli@gmail.com

Solidarity!

David C

David Chiarelli said...

PS: blogsite currently has had over 378,000 reader visits so is very much still alive and well, if not moreso than ever before, so any such endeavour would hardly be wasted.

Guest blogs of course dont have to be limited to OECTA discussions and often arent. Where do OSSTF & ETFO etc members want to go with their union? The Ontario union movement in general.

Remember, we are the grassroots. The unions should be working for you to represent your interests. How? What to do? Lots of big questions!

Anonymous said...

ETFO and OSSTF have been very quiet since the start of the school year. No fire and brimstone and rhetoric this time. We have a contract coming up in September and yet we have heard nothing. That scares me. Most of the people I work with at ETFO say that they cannot afford a strike yet we just experienced the equivalent of a strike (unpaid PD days). Their mortgages, SUVs and lattes are a priority. It has become clear to me that most teachers do not want to teach while under the duress of conflict. What does that say about the type of personality a teacher has? Police and firefighters would not stand for what has happened to teachers. Oh boy! I see big austerity measures coming this Fall. Will 91% of ETFO be okay with it if our union pulls on the puppet string again.

Anonymous said...

Why aren't any of the teacher affiliates fighting for the reinstatement of teachers' sick day banks that were stolen by the Liberal government with union leaders agreeing?

David Chiarelli said...

Good point! Afraid to say boo!? Lets see who they endorse now ....

Anonymous said...

Maybe Kathleen Wynne should get off her high horse/tractor and reinstate the accumulation of 2 sick days per month for all teachers.

Anonymous said...

Now that the HALTON ELEMENTARY OECTA UNIT has a new and progressive president, it's a good time to make the following bylaw changes:
1. Unit President paid at 110% to start then go up by 10% per year of experience.
2. Two term limits of two years each or a total term limit of 4 years maximum for one person to serve as Unit President.
3. Election Procedures-need to have a run off procedure. First candidates run for unit president. Then unsuccessful candidates who ran for unit president can also run again for Vice President, Councilor, and Treasurer positions.
4. Zero Donations to any politicians campaigning for federal, provincial, or municipal office.
5. Honorariums to be paid to OECTA School Reps and Unit Executive Members. The President doesn't work for free, why should these hardworking people?
6. Membership wide voting by ballot box or electronic voting to approve any bylaw changes, not just voting at unit general meetings where members and supporters are stacked.
7. All Committee Chairs should be voted on and appointed by unit wide membership voting.
8. When is the $60000 donation being repaid?

The time for change is now HEU unit members. Notify your unit executive members that you want these changes NOW.

David Chiarelli said...

One hears nothing being said by the OLP or NDP about reversing any contract strips nor for that matter that there won't be more.

Anonymous said...

SPEAKING FOR CHILDREN is nice. But SPEAKING UP FOR TEACHERS would be a good idea too. Since teachers pay all the union dues why are their leaders not focusing on them in the advertising campaign too. Historically unions create better living conditions in society by providing better wages and benefits. Stop apologizing for that and start to HIGHLIGHT it. Just like the TEAMSTERS do.

David Chiarelli said...

Some good points! We have NOTHING to be ashamed of and it can be positively reinforced too!

It will be interesting to see whom the different teacher affiliates, both provincial and local endorse in the provincial election. I trying to gather these for my latest May 23 Teacher Free Speech Ontario Election Study Guide blog. If you have info, links or related Comments to share please post there for discussion purposes!

Solidarity!

David C

David Chiarelli said...

Thanks, but I have taken the liberty of reposting today's Reader Comment on ETFO under the May 23 blog. Please post endorsement info there.

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